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| October 2025 |
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74 |
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| 研究論文Research Articles |
| 主流與小眾之間：網絡主題演化的週期特性對主題「主流」程度的影響及預測 |
| Between the Mainstream and the Minority: The Effect of Periodicity Characteristics of Online Topic Evolution on the Degree of Topic “Mainstreaming” and its Prediction |
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(74)
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| 作者 |
徐翔、王若茗 |
| Author |
Xiang XU, Ruoming WANG |
| 關鍵詞 |
網絡主題、週期特性、主題演化、主流化、功率譜分析 |
| Keywords |
network topics, periodicity characteristics, topic evolution, mainstreaming, power spectrum analysis |
| 摘要 |
網絡主題振盪的週期特性是否以及如何影響其「主流」程度，尚未在既往研究中得到充分重視，這是一個重要的理論維度與實證問題，構成了文化傳播機制中的「看不見的手」。本研究利用功率譜分析和紅噪聲（red noise）檢驗方法，分析了《今日頭條》的28,473,604條帖子，探索文化主題的時間形式與振盪模式，作為一個新的自變量維度。相關性分析、多元線性迴歸模型與XGBoost迴歸模型顯示，主題振盪的週期特性與其「主流」程度之間存在顯著相關，並具備預測效力。在實證計算的基礎上，研究提出「基於振盪模式的文化設置與調節」這一理論維度，進一步探索基於時間形式和振盪模式的文化領導權新作用路徑。文化主題能夠通過隱性時間波動重新分配文化權力，進而影響其主流化過程。這一理論視角強調文化主題如何通過其時間和振盪屬性在無形中塑造社會文化力量格局。本研究為網絡主流文化與亞文化的傳播與引導提供了新的理論視角和實踐維度，旨在更有效地設計文化政策和實踐策略。 |
| Abstract |
Previous studies have not sufficiently emphasized the theoretical dimension and empirical question of how the periodicity of online topic oscillations influences the degree of “mainstreaming,” which is a crucial factor in the mechanism of cultural communication. In this study, we analyzed 28,473,604 posts on Toutiao using power spectrum analysis and the red noise test to explore the new dimension of independent variables, i.e., the temporal form and oscillatory pattern of cultural themes. Correlation analysis, multivariate linear regression modeling, and XGBoost regression modeling show that the periodicity characteristics of topic oscillations are significantly correlated with their “mainstream” degree, which has predictive validity. Based on the empirical calculations, the study proposes the theoretical dimension of “cultural setting and regulation based on oscillation patterns” to further explore the new path of cultural leadership based on temporal forms and oscillation patterns. Cultural themes redistribute cultural power through implicit temporal fluctuations and influence the mainstreaming process. This theoretical perspective emphasizes how cultural themes invisibly shape the pattern of social and cultural power through their temporal and oscillatory attributes. This study provides a new theoretical perspective and practical dimension for the dissemination and guidance of mainstream culture and subculture on the internet and aims to design cultural policies and practice strategies more effectively.
本文引用格式：
徐翔、王若茗（2025）。〈主流與小眾之間：網絡主題演化的週期特性對主題「主流」程度的影響及預測〉。《傳播與社會學刊》，第74 期，頁67–102。
Citation of This Article:
Xu, X., & Wang, R. (2025). Between the mainstream and the minority: The effect of periodicity characteristics of online topic evolution on the degree of topic “mainstreaming” and its prediction. Communication and Society, 74, 67–102. |
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